Citadel vs. Texas A&M Preview: Big Odds, Bigger Pressure at Kyle Field
Clemson Tigers Athletics
On paper, this one looks like a mismatch. On the field, both teams are looking for answers.
The Citadel (2-4, 0-3 Southern Conference) heads to Kyle Field on Saturday to face Texas A&M (3-3, 1-3 SEC). Kickoff is at noon CT (1 p.m. ET), and the game will stream on SEC Network+ and the ESPN app.
The Odds: Stacked Against Both Sides
Because The Citadel is an FCS team, no betting line has been posted for this game. The models don’t need one. ESPN’s analytics give Texas A&M a 99% chance to win, and one projection has the Aggies winning 45-7.
The odds against The Citadel are obvious. The Bulldogs are an FCS team on the road at a 102,733-seat stadium, with no conference win yet.
The odds against Texas A&M are quieter, but they’re real. The Aggies opened the season ranked in the top 10 and started 2-0. Now they’re 3-3 and 1-3 in the SEC after a 27-6 loss at No. 14 Missouri. The offense has scuffled, and Saturday is the last easy-looking game on the schedule before the Aggies go to Alabama. They also finish with South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas. To reach bowl eligibility, A&M still needs three more wins after this one, which means at least two against that group.
In other words, the Aggies can’t afford a slow start against a team they’re expected to beat by plenty.
Series History: A Second Meeting
This will be only the second meeting between the programs. Texas A&M won the first, 35-3, on Sept. 2, 2006, and the Aggies lead the series 1-0.
How They Got Here
The Citadel opened the season with a 42-14 loss at Wofford, where three turnovers proved costly. The Bulldogs’ best moment came against VMI, when they scored 28 unanswered points in the fourth quarter for a 35-24 comeback win, with Quentin Hayes accounting for three touchdowns.
Last week, The Citadel jumped out to a 10-0 lead on No. 24 ETSU before losing 34-16 at home. The Bulldogs’ own coaches and writers pointed to special teams miscues, which have led to or set up a touchdown in five of six games. The Bulldogs entered that game with the nation’s seventh-best rushing attack in the FCS at 229.4 yards per game.
Texas A&M beat Missouri State 50-0 and Arizona State 48-20 to start the year. The Aggies then lost 31-21 to Kentucky and at LSU before beating Arkansas 34-7 in a bounce-back win. Last week’s loss at Missouri was ugly. Quarterback Marcel Reed was 19-of-39 for 189 yards with two interceptions, and the Aggies had just two first downs through three quarters, according to postgame reports. Reed was sacked three times and hurried 13 other times.
That’s a long way from last season, when A&M went 11-2, 7-1 in the SEC, and reached the College Football Playoff.
Depth Chart Breakdown
The Citadel
The Bulldogs’ offense is built around a senior quarterback, Quentin Hayes (6-2, 200), and a veteran line. The tackles, Darwin Murillo (6-4, 310) and Brady Pickett (6-3, 310), anchor a front that averages about 302 to 307 pounds per player, depending on whether Aiden Wiles or Andrew Tumbleston starts at right guard. Gavin Garcia (5-8, 195) leads the backfield, and Damir Abdullah (6-5, 225) is the biggest target on the outside. Braylon Knauth is a slot receiver and also handles punt and kick returns.
Defensively, the line is led by a 330-pound tackle, Brandan Green, with Maurice Bonneau Jr. (6-1, 245) and David Alexander (6-3, 285) up front. Zyion Brown (6-0, 240) leads the linebackers, and the secondary features Khaleb Bridges, DK McGruder, Peyton Betts and Tre’ McLeod. Special teams are led by senior Evan Kiely, the kicker, and Jack Weil, the punter and holder.
Texas A&M
Reed (6-1, 185) remains the starter, with Brady Hart (6-4, 200) and Helaman Casuga (6-0, 213) listed behind him. Rueben Owens II (5-11, 215) and Jamarion Morrow (5-9, 200) share the top spot at running back. Mario Craver (5-9, 180), Isaiah Horton (6-4, 215) and Ashton Bethel-Roman (6-0, 193) lead the receivers, and Micah Riley (6-5, 263) is the top tight end.
The Aggies’ size is the biggest difference. The starting line of Tyree Adams (6-7, 305), Trovon Baugh (6-4, 335), Mark Nabou Jr. (6-4, 307), Wilkin Formby (6-7, 320) and Lamont Rogers (6-6, 340) averages about 321 pounds, roughly 15 to 20 pounds more per player than The Citadel’s.
Defensively, T.J. Searcy, DJ Hicks, CJ Mims and Marco Jones make up the front four, with Daymion Sanford and Noah Mikhail at linebacker. Julio Humphrey and Dezz Ricks hold down the corners. David Olano is the kicker and Tyler White is the punter.
The defensive lines may be closer than expected. The Citadel’s front four averages about 272 pounds, against 282 for A&M’s.
What Has to Go Right
For The Citadel: Keep the ball and keep the clock moving. The Bulldogs’ best chance of staying in the game is a steady run game that shortens the Aggies’ possessions, and clean special teams. They can’t afford the turnovers and miscues that have cost them all year.
For Texas A&M: Protect Reed and get the running game going. The Aggies have a clear talent edge, and this is a chance to rebuild some confidence on offense before Alabama. Anything less than a comfortable win would raise more questions about the offense.
Prediction
Texas A&M should win this game, and the gap in size and depth shows up as the game goes on. The Citadel’s run game can move the ball early and The Bulldogs may score, but the Aggies’ line and speed will wear down a smaller roster.
Our pick: Texas A&M 41, The Citadel 10.
Game Information
When: Saturday, Oct. 17, noon CT (1 p.m. ET)
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
Watch: SEC Network+ and the ESPN app
Series: Texas A&M leads 1-0 (35-3 in 2006)
