Photo: Mercedes Benz Stadium
The Bulldogs are emerging as the favorites to reach the Celebration Bowl, while Arkansas-Pine Bluff takes over the SWAC West lead in a week of major changes across the HBCU football landscape.
The road to Atlanta is getting more interesting, and two Bulldog programs are making sure everyone notices.
South Carolina State and Alabama A&M strengthened their positions in the latest Toyota Championship Projections, released Nov. 4, as the race for the Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota continues to take shape.
South Carolina State made the biggest move in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC), increasing its projected chances of winning the conference championship to 75.97%. Alabama A&M also strengthened its hold on the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC), reaching a 64.02% chance of winning the conference title.
According to the latest projections, the two programs are currently the most likely matchup for the Celebration Bowl, with a 48.79% chance of meeting in Atlanta.
But while the Bulldogs are gaining ground, the SWAC West has become a different kind of race. Arkansas-Pine Bluff made a significant jump to take over the division's top spot, creating another storyline in an increasingly unpredictable championship picture.
South Carolina State Makes the Biggest Move in the MEAC
South Carolina State delivered the most significant improvement in the latest MEAC championship projections.
The Bulldogs jumped from a 39.94% chance of winning the conference on Oct. 24 to 75.97% on Oct. 31 — an increase of 36.03 percentage points.
North Carolina Central also made a notable move, rising from 4.29% to 20.41%, a 16.12-point increase. The Eagles are now positioned as the closest challenger to South Carolina State in the latest projections.
Meanwhile, Howard experienced one of the week's sharpest declines. The Bison dropped from 28.65% to just 2.48%, losing 26.17 percentage points.
Morgan State also took a significant hit, falling from 25.15% to 0.02%. Delaware State moved slightly upward to 1.11%, while Norfolk State dropped to 0.01%.
Latest MEAC Championship Projections
MEAC – Oct. 24 vs. Oct. 31
South Carolina State: 39.94% → 75.97% (+36.03)
North Carolina Central: 4.29% → 20.41% (+16.12)
Howard: 28.65% → 2.48% (-26.17)
Delaware State: 0.87% → 1.11% (+0.24)
Morgan State: 25.15% → 0.02% (-25.13)
Norfolk State: 1.09% → 0.01% (-1.08)
For South Carolina State, the latest numbers reflect a major shift in its championship outlook. North Carolina Central is still in the conversation, but the Bulldogs have created considerable separation in the projections.
Alabama A&M Strengthens Its Hold on the SWAC East
Alabama A&M continues to lead the SWAC championship conversation, and its position in the East Division has become even stronger.
The Bulldogs increased their projected chances of winning the division from 61.33% to 80.19%, an improvement of 18.86 percentage points.
Jackson State remains the closest challenger in the East, rising from 10.53% to 15.11%. Bethune-Cookman, however, experienced a steep decline, dropping from 26.29% to 4.58%.
The remaining East Division teams have limited projected chances, with Mississippi Valley State at 0.09%, Alabama State at 0.03% and Florida A&M at 0%.
SWAC – Oct. 24 vs. Oct. 31
Alabama A&M: 49.82% → 64.02% (+14.20)
Jackson State: 8.01% → 11.05% (+3.04)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 3.09% → 10.22% (+7.13)
Prairie View A&M: 8.79% → 5.53% (-3.26)
Alcorn State: 2.34% → 5.33% (+2.99)
Bethune-Cookman: 17.32% → 2.02% (-15.30)
Grambling State: 9.07% → 1.11% (-7.96)
Southern: 0.49% → 0.54% (+0.05)
Texas Southern: 0.01% → 0.15% (+0.14)
Mississippi Valley State: 0.06% → 0.01% (-0.05)
Alabama State: 0.99% → 0.01% (-0.98)
Florida A&M: 0.00% → 0.00% (0.00)
Additional SWAC Data
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 14.92% → 36.28% (+21.36)
Alcorn State: Data incomplete.
Alabama A&M's growing advantage in the East is helping drive its position as the leading overall SWAC championship contender.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Takes Over the SWAC West
While Alabama A&M continues to strengthen its position, the SWAC West is delivering one of the week's biggest surprises.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff climbed from fourth place in the division projections to the top spot, increasing its championship chances from 14.92% to 36.28%.
The Golden Lions gained 21.36 percentage points, making them one of the biggest movers across the entire projection report.
Alcorn State also made a strong push, climbing from 13.20% to 29.93%. The Braves now sit second in the division projections.
Prairie View A&M dropped from 32.93% to 22.79%, while Grambling State experienced the most significant decline in the division. The Tigers fell from 36.10% to 6.37%, a loss of 29.73 percentage points.
Southern and Texas Southern made smaller gains, reaching 3.57% and 1.05%, respectively.
Additional SWAC Data
Alabama State: 13.20% → 29.93% (+16.73)
Prairie View A&M: 32.93% → 22.79% (-10.14)
Grambling State: 36.10% → 6.37% (-29.73)
Southern: 2.68% → 3.57% (+0.89)
Texas Southern: 0.17% → 1.05% (+0.88)
The West Division has become a much more competitive race. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has the lead in the latest projections, but Alcorn State and Prairie View A&M remain positioned to challenge.
For Grambling State, the latest numbers represent a major change from the previous week's outlook.
Alabama A&M Leads the Overall SWAC Championship Race
Alabama A&M remains the favorite to win the overall SWAC championship, increasing its projected chances from 49.82% to 64.02%.
Jackson State holds the second-highest projection at 11.05%, while Arkansas-Pine Bluff made a notable jump to 10.22%.
Alcorn State also improved to 5.33%, while Prairie View A&M slipped to 5.53%.
Bethune-Cookman experienced one of the largest declines in the overall championship projections, falling from 17.32% to 2.02%. Grambling State dropped from 9.07% to 1.11%.
Latest Overall SWAC Championship Projections
TeamOct. 24Oct. 31ChangeAlabama A&M49.82%64.02%+14.20Jackson State8.01%11.05%+3.04Arkansas-Pine Bluff3.09%10.22%+7.13Prairie View A&M8.79%5.53%-3.26Alcorn State2.34%5.33%+2.99Bethune-Cookman17.32%2.02%-15.30Grambling State9.07%1.11%-7.96Southern0.49%0.54%+0.05Texas Southern0.01%0.15%+0.14Mississippi Valley State0.06%0.01%-0.05Alabama State0.99%0.01%-0.98Florida A&M0.00%0.00%0.00
The numbers show Alabama A&M with a clear advantage, but Arkansas-Pine Bluff's improvement is worth watching. The Golden Lions are gaining momentum in the West and have also moved into the overall SWAC championship conversation.
The Biggest Movers of the Week
Several programs experienced major changes in their projected championship chances between Oct. 24 and Oct. 31.
The biggest gains:
South Carolina State (+36.03): Made the largest jump in the MEAC, increasing its championship projection to 75.97%.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+21.36): Moved from fourth to first in the SWAC West projections.
Alabama A&M (+18.86 in the East): Strengthened its division lead and increased its overall SWAC championship projection by 14.20 points.
Alcorn State (+16.73): Climbed into second place in the SWAC West.
The biggest declines:
Grambling State (-29.73): Experienced the largest drop in the SWAC West, falling from first to fourth.
Howard (-26.17): Saw its MEAC championship projection fall from 28.65% to 2.48%.
Morgan State (-25.13): Dropped from 25.15% to 0.02% in the MEAC projections.
Bethune-Cookman (-21.71 in the East): Saw its division championship chances fall to 4.58%.
The biggest takeaway? The championship picture can change quickly, and several programs are running out of room for mistakes as the regular season moves toward its final stretch.
Games That Could Shake Up the Championship Race
The Nov. 5-7 weekend features several conference matchups with the potential to reshape the next round of projections.
Thursday, Nov. 5
No. 2 South Carolina State at Howard
South Carolina State has an opportunity to strengthen its position at the top of the MEAC projections. Howard, meanwhile, needs a victory to keep its remaining championship hopes alive.
Saturday, Nov. 7
No. 1 Alabama A&M at No. 6 Prairie View A&M
This matchup carries implications for both SWAC divisions. Alabama A&M can reinforce its position in the East, while Prairie View A&M looks to improve its standing in the West.
Tied No. 4 Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Grambling State
The newly projected SWAC West leader faces a Grambling State team looking to regain its footing in the division race. A loss for Arkansas-Pine Bluff could open the door for another shakeup.
Florida A&M at tied No. 4 Alcorn State
Alcorn State has an opportunity to improve its position in the West and keep pressure on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Braves will be looking to build on their recent jump in the projections.
No. 8 North Carolina Central at Norfolk State
North Carolina Central is looking to stay within reach of South Carolina State in the MEAC championship race. A win would help the Eagles maintain their position as the Bulldogs' closest projected challenger.
What the Toyota Championship Projections Really Mean
The Toyota Championship Projections are designed to give fans a look at how the conference championship races are developing. They are not final standings, playoff selections or guarantees of which teams will reach Atlanta.
The data-driven model considers several factors, including:
Offensive and defensive efficiency.
Strength of schedule.
Conference results.
Home-field advantage.
Conference standings and applicable tiebreaker procedures.
The model then runs more than 10,000 simulations of the remaining season to estimate how often each team wins its conference or division.
This week's projection carries a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.8 percentage points. Teams separated by only a few tenths of a percentage point should be viewed as essentially even.
The margin of error applies to the simulation process, not every possible variable that can affect a football game. Injuries, turnovers, weather, player availability, coaching decisions and matchup differences can all change what happens on the field.
In other words, the projections offer a snapshot of the race — but the teams still have to win the games.
The Road to Atlanta: Celebration Bowl Set for Dec. 12
The ultimate destination remains Atlanta.
The MEAC champion and SWAC champion will meet in the Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota on Saturday, Dec. 12, at noon ET on ABC.
With South Carolina State and Alabama A&M currently leading their respective championship conversations, a matchup between the two Bulldog programs is emerging as the most likely scenario in the latest projections.
However, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Alcorn State, North Carolina Central and other contenders still have opportunities to change the picture.
The road to the Celebration Bowl is not settled, and the upcoming conference matchups could make the next projection report look very different.
Atlanta is the destination. The teams will decide who gets there.
Source: Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota, Toyota Championship Projections, released Nov. 4, 2026.
